Microsoft News Tracker

I enjoy techie fights as much as anyone and this week we were treated to one on the subject of Microsoft’s upcoming client operating system, Windows Vista. Jason Cross led off at Extreme Tech with “Why Windows Vista Won’t Suck,” and Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols responded at Desktop Linux (also a teaser version at eWeek) with “Why Windows Vista Will Suck.” The argument has been picked up in various places on the Web and is, of course, the opening shot in a battle that will provide entertainment for some time to come.

However, as much as I enjoy the brawling, I am driven to suggest some more pragmatic considerations. In that regard, there are really two, and only two, meaningful questions:

Upside Question: Is Windows Vista so far from sucking that, in order to get it, significant numbers of customers will retire PC hardware early or try to upgrade the operating system on old hardware?

With due respect to Mr. Cross, there’s really nothing on his list of “cool” Vista features that is particularly compelling. Nice to have certainly, but which of the new features are going to stampede buyers into the stores? This has been the reaction to similar lists in the past ([1], [2]) and nothing has changed or is likely to change, so I believe the answer to this question is “No.”

Downside Question: Does Windows Vista suck so much that the normal flow of greater than 90% of all client PCs with Microsoft operating systems will be disrupted?

With due respect to Mr. Vaughan-Nichols, his argument that there’s “nothing that will make the still undelivered Vista significantly better than the Linux or the Mac OS X desktops” he has in front of him today won’t impact Vista sales in the slightest. More troubling is his observation, based on the latest CTP, that Vista is a hardware hog:

First, let me say, I’ve been running Vista myself for quite some time. Next to me at this very moment is a Gateway 835GM. Under the hood, it has an Intel Pentium D 2.8GHz dual-core processor, an Intel 945G chipset, 1GB DDR2 (double data rate) DRAM, a 250GB SATA hard drive, and built-in Intel GMA (graphics media accelerator) 950 graphics. That’s a fairly powerful machine. Which is a good thing, because it’s the only PC in my office of 20 PCs that’s got enough oomph to run the Windows Vista February CTP (Community Technology Preview) build 5308 without driving me into fits of rage.

There seem to be a number of similar complaints, which I put down to the beta itself, and which will presumably be substantially remedied in the final version so that the buyer of new hardware will be satisfied with the performance of his new PC running Windows Vista. On that basis, the answer to this question is also “No.”

To net it out, there doesn’t seem to be anything in the back and forth over Vista features that is going to make any difference for good or ill in the Windows franchise on new client PCs. One may despair at the inability of consumers to appreciate the technical nuances, but that’s the way it is.

The Microsoft antitrust fight with the European Commission is yielding a wealth of entertainment. The AP story I linked earlier today has just been updated:

Microsoft Corp. will be fined if it keeps up its current conduct, the EU’s antitrust chief warned Thursday after the company accused the EU of withholding documents and colluding with Microsoft’s rivals before filing charges last December.

“If we pursue the line we are following now, there will be fines and they won’t be small fines,” EU Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes told Dow Jones Newswires.

I’m sure that prospect has occurred to Microsoft.

Microsoft’s Origami viral marketing scheme continued to unfold today as Reuters reports:

The veil of mystery surrounding Microsoft’s secretive Origami portable device lifted just a little on Thursday after the firm updated the project’s cryptic Web site, hinting that all would be revealed on March 9.

The web site is www.origamiproject.com and it says we will “find out” on March 9. I expect it would be impolite to observe that a week ago it said we would “learn more” today. In any case, theories abound:

It may be coincidence, but March 9 is also the launch in Hannover of CeBit, the world’s largest annual trade show for the information and telecommunications technology industry.

GottaBeMobile points to a Intel viral marketing site (it must be catching), www.umpc.com, which seems cut from the same ultramobile PC cloth, but promises details on March 7. More on the Intel UMPC at TG Daily. Either Microsoft and Intel are each going to have their own ultramobile gadget or they need to synchronize dates.

Of course, you can’t control the message with viral marketing and it sometimes mutates in unforeseen directions. Valleywag’s Microsoft’s Origami: a “niche product for women” extracts maximum mileage from an analyst quote in Anne B. McDonald’s Today @ PC World column. Also there:

“Peter Pawlak, an analyst with Directions on Microsoft, agreed: “Microsoft is trying to do some viral marketing. We’re not sure that’s a great idea. . .when it finally comes out it’s like the Segway scooter–where are they today?”

Matt Rosoff, also with Directions on Microsoft, told us his firm will not even be attending Microsoft’s analyst meeting on Thursday in Redmond. The meeting, he said, will be run by the research department, “For us, research is interesting as an organization, but our customers are interested in stuff that’s coming out in the next 18 months.”

Ouch!

Update: Ina Fried at CNET:

Although Microsoft continues to play somewhat coy, sources have provided a pretty clear picture of the mini-tablet devices. They will carry Microsoft’s software, but be made by several other companies, sources have said. They will also be larger than a typical handheld computer, with at least some of the devices using a roughly 7-inch screen.

Microsoft refused to go into details, but offered up a statement saying: “As promised on the OrigamiProject.com website, we are offering more details today about Origami, including that it is a new category of mobile PCs that will run Windows XP. We’re excited to share more information with you on March 9.”

The only departure from what had been expected is the presence of Windows XP instead of Vista. Either they are going to ship before Vista is ready or it’s going to be Windows XP Embedded.

Update 2: Ben Ames and Elizabeth Montalbano at InfoWorld:

Despite the buzz being generated by its Origami Project, Microsoft plans to give it only brief mention at the upcoming Cebit trade show, even though that event coincides with when the company has said it will offer more details.
…
The company will discuss Origami for “only 30 seconds” during its main press conference at the Cebit trade show next week in Hanover, Germany, according to a spokesman. Frank Mihm-Gebauer, who is coordinating Microsoft’s press events at Cebit, said Microsoft partners Intel and Samsung Electronics will provide the most information to Cebit attendees about Origami, since Microsoft has not designed any new hardware for the project.

The Microsoft European Union antitrust proceedings are shaping up to be as exciting as a prominent criminal trial as Aoife White reports at the AP:

Microsoft Corp. filed a formal complaint with EU antitrust regulators Thursday, alleging that the European Commission withheld documents and secretly colluded with rival companies shortly before the EU charged that Microsoft had not obeyed an earlier ruling.
…
In Thursday’s complaint, Microsoft said it believes EU officials had “inappropriate” contacts with (the independent monitor, Professor) Barrett and rival firms Sun Microsystems Inc., IBM Corp., Oracle Corp. and Novell Inc.

“While the documents provided do not include the direct correspondence between the Commission and its technical experts, they show that the Commission, the trustee, and Microsoft’s adversaries were secretly collaborating throughout the fall of 2005 in a manner inconsistent with the Commission’s role as neutral regulator and the Trustee’s role as independent monitor,” said Horacio Gutierrez, Microsoft’s associate general counsel in Europe.

“These contacts call into question whether the reports … are really independent, impartial assessments of Microsoft’s technical documentation, or instead are argumentative tracts developed for the Commission with the assistance of Microsoft’s competitors,” he said.

There was no immediate comment from the European Commission. Looks like another appeal to public opinion and the EU member governments over the head of the EC.