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Wolfgang Gruener has the eulogy for Origami at TG Daily in “The UMPC dies. And no one notices“:
Ok, let’s not be so dramatic. It really depends on your view if the UMPC is actually dead or alive. However, the idea of the Ultra Mobile PC as it was pitched to us in 2006, as an ultra cool and always connected companion that is with us anytime and anywhere, is gone for good. Expect the current UMPC generation to leave the general retail market very soon.
During a recent conversation with Intel, which has been one of the first companies to show UMPC concepts and unveil some prototype devices a little over a year a ago, we learned that the initial concept of the UMPC has failed. While the form factor of the UMPC won’t go away, these devices have been less appealing to the mass market than expected and have been redirected to aim at the business market, for example field technicians who use bulky Tablet PCs today. If Intel has its way, then what once was the mass market UMPC will morph into much smaller and less powerful “mobile Internet devices,” short “MID”.
So, if you have been dreaming about that cool little tablet you can bring on vacation instead of dragging that notebook bag along, continue to dream. While MIDs will be more affordable, come in a smaller package and offer more connectivity options than today’s UMPCs, they will be far less capable in terms of processing power and storage capabilities.
Everyone wanted the product that was misleadingly hyped, but it couldn’t be delivered. There’s much more by following the link including speculation as to whether smartphones actually leave any market room for the the MID.
It looks like the Orgami (AKA UMPC) form factor portable PC sponsored by Microsoft and Intel is getting a second chance - Ina Fried at CNET:
Get ready for Origami take two. While Microsoft’s minitablet effort may not be quite where the software maker had hoped, the project is ready for another cameo.
This spring, Microsoft attracted huge buzz for the Origami prior to its launch, but as details emerged and the products hit the market, they were roundly criticized as overpriced and underpowered.
Next month, at CES, Microsoft will be back with another round of the tiny computers. The latest tablets, code-named Vistagami because of their Windows Vista support, also will come in a wider range of looks, including some models with keyboards. Microsoft CEO Bill Gates is expected to mention some of the new devices in his CES keynote as part of a broader discussion of the new types of computers that will be enabled with Vista, including new all-in-one PCs and other esoteric designs.
But it’s unclear whether the new crop of devices will do that much to address the two biggest criticisms of the category: price and battery life.
More details by following the link, but adding Vista or a keyboard isn’t enough in my opinion. The good news is that so far a viral marketing campaign hasn’t been spotted.
It seems that opinions of the Origami/UMPC vary greatly depending on how much attention you paid to the cheesy Microsoft viral marketing campaign. Martyn Williams at InfoWorld:
Feedback from customers who have bought Samsung Electronics’s Q1 device suggests that a pre-launch teaser campaign by Microsoft might have backfired, a Samsung executive said Monday.The Q1 went on sale in the U.S. in May and is based on Microsoft’s Origami platform. Microsoft collaborated with Intel to create Origami, which combines a tablet edition of Windows XP with a pen-based tablet computer similar in specification to a laptop computer.
“Feedback has been quite mixed,” said David Steel, vice president of marketing for Samsung’s digital media business, in a briefing with reporters at the company’s headquarters in Suwon, south of Seoul.
…
Consumers who have encountered the Q1 with no prior knowledge are generally positive about the device while those who read a lot about the Origami platform prior to seeing the Q1 have been more negative, he said.“Particularly from someone [with prior] understanding of Origami, [they have been] saying ‘We expected this and expected that’ and comparing specification and price with laptop computers,” said Steel.
Of course, that was the pundit reaction too, when the marketing fog had cleared. It’s always tough when the hype writes checks that the product can’t cash.
Charlie Taylor at The Register:
Sales of handheld devices are continuing to fall, according to new figures issued by research firm IDC. The organisation’s latest worldwide Handheld Qview report reveals the total number of devices shipped during the first quarter of 2006 totaled 1.5m, a drop of 22.3 per cent year-on-year.In 2005, global shipments of handheld devices declined 16.7 per cent from 9.1m units in 2004 to 7.5m.
Handheld device is another name for PDA or more precisely:
IDC defines handheld devices as pocket-sized electronics that lack telephony, may have wireless e-mail, offer a stylus or keypad for data entry and are capable of synchronizing data with a laptop or desktop PC.The decline affected all the major vendors, so the segment leaders did not change from recent quarters.
Palm Inc. leads the sector with 32.2 percent market share, followed by Hewlett-Packard Co. with 23.5 percent, Dell Inc. with 9.7 percent and Acer Inc. with 7.5 percent.
And except for Palm, they all run a Windows Mobile OS. This trend has been going on for a while as equally capable cell phones (some also running Windows Mobile OSs) pushed PDAs out of the market.
Thinking about the definition of a “handheld device,” if you eliminate the “pocket-sized,” you have an accurate description of the much hyped Intel UMPC/Microsoft Origami devices. However, Origami seems to have some secret mojo with the market prognosticators:
Despite the general shoulder shrugging that greeted the launch of the first Microsoft-based “ultramobile PCs,” the minicomputers are still set to find a market, analysts believe.According to In-Stat research, the number of devices shipped could rise to 7.8 million by 2011, driven by users looking for a data-centric mobile device beyond their cell phone.
But not a PDA, I guess. Also note that the projected Origami unit numbers in 2011 are nearly identical with the PDA unit numbers in 2005.
Sales of minitablets will likely be hampered by the lack of appropriate processors, In-Stat said, with battery life failing to match the functionality demands of the devices themselves. However, both Intel and Microsoft–primary backers of the new form factor–have said they are working on extending the devices’ average battery life.
All for the good, I’m sure, but any advance also likely applies to real laptop and tablet PCs.
Nonetheless, Samsung today launched the Q1, its first Origami/UMPC product, and some even more optimistic market numbers were bandied about:
Samsung brought its Origami tablet to the United States on Monday, announcing that the device would go on sale at Best Buy’s online store next week and will show up in some of the retailer’s outlets this summer.
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Market researcher In-Stat has forecast that shipments of such ultramobile PCs could reach 7.8 million units by 2011.Intel, though, sees an even brighter future. In an interview, Intel Vice President Gadi Singer said the market opportunity is “absolutely much higher.”
“We’re looking at a market of 100 million units a year,” Singer said, but he did not say when the market would reach that size.
To provide some perspective, 100 million is a bit less than half of current annual global PC shipments. It’ll be interesting to see if the market even approaches the In-Stat estimate, much more the Intel one.
