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Charlie Taylor at The Register:
Sales of handheld devices are continuing to fall, according to new figures issued by research firm IDC. The organisation’s latest worldwide Handheld Qview report reveals the total number of devices shipped during the first quarter of 2006 totaled 1.5m, a drop of 22.3 per cent year-on-year.In 2005, global shipments of handheld devices declined 16.7 per cent from 9.1m units in 2004 to 7.5m.
Handheld device is another name for PDA or more precisely:
IDC defines handheld devices as pocket-sized electronics that lack telephony, may have wireless e-mail, offer a stylus or keypad for data entry and are capable of synchronizing data with a laptop or desktop PC.The decline affected all the major vendors, so the segment leaders did not change from recent quarters.
Palm Inc. leads the sector with 32.2 percent market share, followed by Hewlett-Packard Co. with 23.5 percent, Dell Inc. with 9.7 percent and Acer Inc. with 7.5 percent.
And except for Palm, they all run a Windows Mobile OS. This trend has been going on for a while as equally capable cell phones (some also running Windows Mobile OSs) pushed PDAs out of the market.
Thinking about the definition of a “handheld device,” if you eliminate the “pocket-sized,” you have an accurate description of the much hyped Intel UMPC/Microsoft Origami devices. However, Origami seems to have some secret mojo with the market prognosticators:
Despite the general shoulder shrugging that greeted the launch of the first Microsoft-based “ultramobile PCs,” the minicomputers are still set to find a market, analysts believe.According to In-Stat research, the number of devices shipped could rise to 7.8 million by 2011, driven by users looking for a data-centric mobile device beyond their cell phone.
But not a PDA, I guess. Also note that the projected Origami unit numbers in 2011 are nearly identical with the PDA unit numbers in 2005.
Sales of minitablets will likely be hampered by the lack of appropriate processors, In-Stat said, with battery life failing to match the functionality demands of the devices themselves. However, both Intel and Microsoft–primary backers of the new form factor–have said they are working on extending the devices’ average battery life.
All for the good, I’m sure, but any advance also likely applies to real laptop and tablet PCs.
Nonetheless, Samsung today launched the Q1, its first Origami/UMPC product, and some even more optimistic market numbers were bandied about:
Samsung brought its Origami tablet to the United States on Monday, announcing that the device would go on sale at Best Buy’s online store next week and will show up in some of the retailer’s outlets this summer.
…
Market researcher In-Stat has forecast that shipments of such ultramobile PCs could reach 7.8 million units by 2011.Intel, though, sees an even brighter future. In an interview, Intel Vice President Gadi Singer said the market opportunity is “absolutely much higher.”
“We’re looking at a market of 100 million units a year,” Singer said, but he did not say when the market would reach that size.
To provide some perspective, 100 million is a bit less than half of current annual global PC shipments. It’ll be interesting to see if the market even approaches the In-Stat estimate, much more the Intel one.
That’s the title and the lede in Joel Rothstein’s Reuters article:
Microsoft Corp. Chairman and Chief Software Architect Bill Gates on Wednesday mocked a $100 laptop computer for developing countries being developed with the backing of rival Google Inc. at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
…
“The last thing you want to do for a shared use computer is have it be something without a disk … and with a tiny little screen,” Gates said at the Microsoft Government Leaders Forum in suburban Washington.“Hardware is a small part of the cost” of providing computing capabilities, he said, adding that the big costs come from network connectivity, applications and support.
…
“If you are going to go have people share the computer, get a broadband connection and have somebody there who can help support the user, geez, get a decent computer where you can actually read the text and you’re not sitting there cranking the thing while you’re trying to type,” Gates said.
Stand by for the media furor. I think the idea is fairly wacky myself, but the chairman of Microsoft needs to be crisp in his arguments if he’s going to take on this one. Gates didn’t help his case by holding up one of the newly announced $600-$1000 Origami UMPCs or thinking that the $100 computer involves sharing – there’s actually supposed to be one of the hand cranked gadgets per kid. I also wonder what happened to Microsoft’s cell phone alternative.
But whether it’s love remains to be seen. There’s a lengthy video on Channel 9 and a Press Q&A, but here’s a summary:
- Microsoft calls them Ultra-Mobile Personal Computers (UMPCs) which is a hyphen more than Intel.
- Runs Microsoft Windows XP Tablet PC Edition 2005 with the addition of the Microsoft Touch Pack for Windows XP which optimizes the touch screen user interface and also includes a thumb-based, on-screen keyboard that’s touch-optimized for easy text input. Will run Vista eventually.
- “Touch Pack software also helps keep you entertained with the introduction of Microsoft Sudoku, a highly entertaining touch and ink enabled game. ”
- As usual with Microsoft specifications for hardware, the exact designs offered by vendor partners will vary, but here are the ground rules:
- Pricing is determined by the manufacturers, but is expected to be in the range of US$599-$999.
- Availability also is determined by the manufacturers and that looks like:
- There’s a hint that some Independent Software Vendors are already on board to deliver specialized software, but if others want to play, they should check out the Ultra-Mobile section of the Mobile Developer Center.
- As for who’s running the wagon train:
Microsoft developed the concept for this type of UMPC based on our own research, combined with key new developments by industry partners. These developments include new low-power, high-performance processors, extended battery life and enhancements to Tablet PC software such as the Touch Pack interface tools. While Microsoft will continue to provide leadership in the development of this category, the creation and continued evolution of UMPCs will happen through a broad collaboration between Microsoft, Intel and a wide range of OEMs, ODMs, IHVs and ISVs.
OK, those are the mundane details, but what is the gadget good for? I may be suffering from a paucity of imagination, but I just can’t figure out how or why I would use an UMPC, especially the initial versions.
It isn’t a phone, it’s too big for a PDA (which is a dead category anyhow), and the battery life seems to be way too short to be very portable. I’m sure not going to plug it in, attach a keyboard and mouse, and prop it up on my desk to do ordinary PC work either, so what’s left? At a guess, it’s an oversized portable video player or gaming device if you don’t mind the short battery life. Frankly there’s not a heap of excitement there.
For a laugh, head over to the Intel Ultra Mobile (without a hyphen) PC web site and watch the video for a 1930′s Popular Mechanics Flying Car view of some future version. Just don’t expect to buy one in April.
As presaged last week, Intel and Microsoft seem to be having separate kickoffs for their new mobile PC design. Intel lead off the dance yesterday at the Intel Developers Forum with their release of details on what they call the Ultra Mobile PC (UMPC) and Microsoft will introduce their version called Origami on Thursday at CeBIT. Ina Fried at ZDNet reports on Intel:
In a preview of Tuesday afternoon’s demonstration, Brad Graff, Intel’s marketing director, showed CNET News.com several of the Ultra Mobile PC devices, including an example of the kind of hardware that will ship in the next few weeks as part of the Microsoft effort.As earlier reported, the first devices have a 7-inch touch screen, standard x86 processors, and can run full versions of desktop operating systems including the Windows XP variant being used for Origami.
In later generations, probably next year or later, the devices could have the pocket size, all-day battery life, and $500 price that Microsoft and Intel are aiming for, Graff said in an interview.
The first generation of devices are likely to get about three hours of battery life, he said.
In addition to the 7-inch model, Graff showed several other prototype devices of what the chipmaker hopes will be possible in future versions, including models with smaller screens and a swivel-out keyboard. Although the prototypes are working, because they use today’s standard components, they get only about 15 minutes of battery life.
Intel’s hardware, which uses its ultra low-voltage chips, can run standard x86 operating systems, including Windows and Linux. Microsoft plans on Thursday to finally detail its Origami effort, which runs only on Windows XP.
Intel just said the “L” word! There are more photos of the Intel prototypes here and at the overloaded Intel Ultra Mobile PC web site. Microsoft’s Robert Scoble points to a CNBC video of the prototypes. I’m pleased to see that the keyboard isn’t a completely unknown concept.
Reactions to the Intel revelations has so far been less than favorable (e.g. Blogger’s Origami dreams crumpled) and rumors abound about what Microsoft will actually reveal in their kickoff at CeBIT (e.g. Origami Just a Glorified Media Player with Nasty DRM?). I’m still puzzled about why the Microsoft operating system of choice is Windows XP, although several sources refer to it as a “special version.” We’ll find out tomorrow.
Finally, it seems that ASUS and Samsung are the two “launch partners” whose commitment to actually manufacture the devices will also be announced tomorrow. Macworld reports on Samsung and DailyTech has the ASUS story.
